How it started

On 28 February 2026, the United States and Israel launched a coordinated surprise military strike against Iran. The operation, codenamed Operation Epic Fury by the US and Operation Roaring Lion by Israel, targeted military installations, missile infrastructure, government buildings, and leadership compounds across Iran. Israeli officials stated that the strikes used approximately 200 fighter jets and over 1,200 bombs in the first 24 hours, making it the largest combat sortie in Israeli Air Force history.

The strikes killed Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, along with dozens of senior military and government officials, including Defence Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh, IRGC commander Mohammad Pakpour, and the chief of staff of the armed forces, Abdolrahim Mousavi. The stated objectives from US and Israeli leadership included destroying Iran's nuclear program, degrading its missile capabilities, and ultimately achieving regime change.

The attack came despite diplomatic efforts that appeared to be making progress. Just one day before the strikes, Oman's foreign minister announced that a "breakthrough" had been reached in nuclear negotiations, with Iran agreeing to downgrade its enriched uranium and accept full verification by the International Atomic Energy Agency.

The regional fallout

What makes this conflict particularly alarming is how quickly it has spread beyond Iran's borders. Within hours of the initial strikes, Iran retaliated with hundreds of ballistic missiles and drones, targeting not just Israel but also US military bases and allied nations across the entire Persian Gulf region.

Countries directly affected

The scale of the regional impact is staggering. Iran launched strikes against:

Turkey has also been pulled into the crisis after a ballistic missile from Iranian territory entered Turkish airspace and landed in Hatay Province, prompting NATO to reaffirm its commitment to defending Turkey.

The European response

The conflict has drawn European powers into varying degrees of involvement. The United Kingdom authorized the US to use British bases for defensive strikes and dispatched naval assets to the region. France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Spain have sent warships or military assets, primarily to defend Cyprus. Greece deployed F-16s after drones targeted the island.

The human cost

As of 12 March, UNICEF reported that more than 1,100 children have been injured or killed across the conflict. The total casualty figures, while difficult to verify in an active war zone, paint a grim picture:

One of the most devastating incidents involved a US missile strike on a girls' school in Minab, Iran, which killed at least 165 civilians, most of them children. A Pentagon investigation attributed the strike to outdated targeting intelligence. The Iranian Red Crescent reported that as of 7 March, 65 schools and 14 medical centres had been targeted.

The global economic shock

The war's impact extends far beyond the battlefield. The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of global petroleum consumption passes, has been effectively shut down. Iran has been mining the strait and attacking commercial shipping, and traffic has ground to a near standstill.

The consequences have been immediate and severe:

Qatar's energy minister warned that if the war continues, Gulf energy producers may be forced to halt exports entirely, which "will bring down economies of the world." The UN World Food Programme has warned of significant long-term increases in global food prices, as nearly 50% of global urea and sulfur exports transit through the Strait of Hormuz.

Where things stand now

Twelve days into the conflict, neither side shows clear signs of backing down. Iran's ballistic missile launch rate has reportedly dropped by 90% since the first day, which analysts attribute to depletion of stockpiles and rationing for a longer war. However, Iran has shifted to using larger, higher-impact missiles and continues drone operations.

On the US-Israeli side, the strikes have intensified over time, expanding to include oil production facilities, financial institutions, and infrastructure targets. The US has deployed a third aircraft carrier to the region and positioned B-1 and B-52 bombers at bases in Europe.

Iran appointed Mojtaba Khamenei, the former supreme leader's son, as the new supreme leader on 8 March. Meanwhile, President Trump's stated objectives have shifted from "eliminating imminent threats" to demanding "unconditional surrender."

The conflict has also reignited fighting in Lebanon, drawn NATO into discussions about Article 4, and raised concerns about Houthi involvement in Yemen. The UN Security Council passed a resolution condemning Iran's strikes on Gulf states, but the broader conflict remains without a clear diplomatic path forward.

Why this matters

I think what unsettles me most about this situation is how quickly it escalated from diplomatic negotiations to a multi-country war. One day there was talk of a "breakthrough" in nuclear talks, the next day bombs were falling across the Middle East.

This is, by any reasonable measure, the closest the world has come to a truly global conflict in decades. You have the US, Israel, Iran, multiple Gulf states, Hezbollah, European nations, and NATO all involved in some capacity. Russia is reportedly sharing intelligence with Iran. China may be preparing financial assistance and missile components for Tehran. The economic shock waves are hitting every continent.

I don't know what can be done about it. I don't have a neat conclusion or a hopeful takeaway. What I do know is that the facts are deeply troubling, and staying informed matters. The fog of war is thick, and there are powerful incentives on all sides to distort the picture. The best any of us can do is pay attention, seek out reliable reporting, and not look away.

The war is far from over. And the world is watching.

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